Working Papers

Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects (with Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun)

Under revision for The Quarterly Journal of Economics

[Slides] [SSRN] [Press: NYT, Vox, Worth, Promarket, HLS] [BibTex] [PRisk Data (Data updated together with new draft 4/2019. Now include measures of Political Sentiment. Authors please sign up for our email list here.)]

Currency Manipulation (with Thomas Mertens and Tony Zhang)

[Slides] [SSRN] [NBER Working Paper] [BibTex]

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth (with Konrad Burchardi, Thomas Chaney, Lisa Tarquinio, and Stephen Terry)


Published and Forthcoming Papers

Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World (with Rui Mano)

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, forthcoming

[Slides Latex] [SSRN] [NBER Working Paper] [Voxeu column] [BibTex] [Data]

Migrants, Ancestors, and Foreign Investments (with Konrad Burchardi and Thomas Chaney)

The Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

[Slides] [World Economic Forum] [Voxeu column] [Video] [Data] [BibTex]

The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt's Arab Spring (with Daron Acemoglu and Ahmed Tahoun)

The Review of Financial Studies (2018) 31 (1), pp. 1-42 (editor's choice)

[Slides] [Voxeu column] [Video] [Press coverage] [Data] [BibTex]

The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment (with Thomas M. Mertens)

The American Economic Review (2017) 107 (4), pp. 1059-1103

[Slides] [SSRN] [NBER Working Paper] [Press coverage] [BibTex] [Code: Static Model, Dynamic Model ]

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics (with Nicola Fuchs-Sch√ľndeln)

Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume 2 (2016), North-Holland, pp. 923-1012

[Online appendix] [NBER Working Paper] [Slides] [Teaching Materials: Slides, Handout, Latex Code] [BibTex]

Not so Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock (with Thomas Mertens and Tony Zhang)

Journal of International Economics (2016) 99, pp. S43-S57

[Slides] [NBER Working Paper] [Code] [Video] [BibTex]

Information Aggregation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (with Thomas M. Mertens)

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, pp. 159-207

[NBER Working Paper] [BibTex]

Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns

The Journal of Finance (2013) 68(6), pp. 2269-2308. Winner of the Austrian Central Bank's 2009 Klaus Liebscher Award and the Leo Melamed Prize for Outstanding Research in Finance.

[NBER Working Paper] [Slides] [Teaching Note] [BibTex]

The Economic Impact of Social Ties: Evidence from German Reunification (with Konrad Burchardi)

The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2013) 128(3), pp. 1219-1271

[Slides] [NBER Working Paper] [Press coverage] [Data] [BibTex]

Social Structure and Development: A Legacy of the Holocaust in Russia (with Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson)

The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2011) 126(2), pp. 895-946.

[NBER Working Paper] [Data] [Press coverage] [BibTex]

Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons (with Thomas M. Mertens)

The American Economic Review P&P (2011) 101(2), pp. 402-405.


Work in Progress

Country Risk (with Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun)


Other Writings

What the euro has done for you [Italian]

Il Sole 24 Ore, May 5, 2017

Research Statement (an overview of my work, January 2016)